Benchmarking Private Equity Performance

How do you measure return on an investment in private equity? Here's David A. Kaplan's take on it:

The nomenclature VCs use to describe their investment returns is somewhere between unfathomable and impenetrable. Rather than a simple term like "annual return" - how much your money, on average, appreciates in a given year - the VCs use "internal rate of return."
IRR is an economic term of art that seeks to account for the fact that the $1 million you commit to a fund isn't actually all there on Day 1 (instead being "drawn down" by installments). You may have sent in $100,000 at the beginning, another $200,000 in six months, and
gotten back $53,000 in dividends at the end of the year. IRR takes into account these different cash flows... still have no idea how to compute IRR. After talking to a business professor, an accountant, two VC financial officers, three investors in KP funds, and one of my neighbors, I'm convinced IRR cannot be explained in English, which is my first language. The trouble with IRR - a mathematical equation that a leading corporate finance textbook describes with eight variables - is that it doesn't indicate the bottom line. Invested a million dollars in KPCB VIII? Given an IRR of X percent, how much did you make? The correct answer is, "It depends."1

In this footnote to his hilarious tale of venture capitalists and their world, Kaplan manages to get to the heart of the IRR conundrum. Yet as
valid as these criticisms are, are they new? Unfortunately not. Two independent teams, one from Richards & Tierney (in 1995), the other from
the team of Austin M. Long and Craig Nickels (in 1996), raised many of the same criticisms and suggested new methodologies for performance measurement.

private i's Benchmarking Module puts these and other variations on these methodologies to work.

One of the main advantages of the private i Benchmarks is that it works directly off your data. From within private i, you can calculate an IRR for any commitment as if it were invested in a benchmark index. You can use the Benchmark IRR to compare performance to any index you want...or dream up. You can model the performance of a portfolio of investments as if they were invested in a benchmark index. With this tool, you can easily answer:

  • How would your money have fared if it were invested in an index fund that tracks the S&P?
  • How does your performance compare with vintage year benchmark returns from Venture Economics?
  • Does your portfolio outperform the S&P by 300 basis points?
  • What is the performance of your 1999 Buy Out funds compared to Venture?
  • ...

private i Benchmarks helps you answer questions, but it does not pose the questions. You must do that. This is an exact science with a very subjective basis: Make wrong assumptions and you will get precise numbers that may make no sense. It is up to you to take a sensible approach
to comparing fund performance. If you don't believe that the latest two years have significant data, or that that data can skew the result, you should omit these funds from your analysis. If you do not believe that you should commingle Real Estate and Direct Investments, then don't. As well, this process is very computational intensive, and so you can easily spend a lot of time waiting for results to ambiguous questions. Be clear
on your assumptions and the results may surprise you, but should not befuddle you.

Concepts: The IRR

"Eliminate the impossible, and what remains, however, improbable, is the truth." - Sherlock Holmes to Watson.

The Richards & Tierney paper stressed the difference between continuous and opportunistic investing.

  • In continuous investing, you hand a sum of money over to a money manager and that manager assumes responsibility for that money
    until you end your relationship. In continuous investing, the Time-Weighted Rate of Return (TWR) is widely regarded an appropriate measure. Timing of cash flows is irrelevant. The manager always has your money.
  • Opportunistic investing isn't about taking your money all at once. Some of your money is committed to an investment (for example, a Limited Partnership), but capital is only drawn when needed and over time some money may be returned to you. It's widely recognized
    that the IRR is a better measure of this type of investment, but it has an inherent flaw. Austin Long's dictum is to eliminate that which
    is impossible. What is impossible here? In simple terms, the mathematics of the IRR is based on this:

"Take whatever you get from the deal and reinvest it in the deal."

In private equity, this is the one option you do not have. You sign on at a moment in time, pay in over time; get money out; and the deal runs its course. With its somewhat peculiar mathematics, the IRR assumes that you are able to reinvest all distributions back into a deal that performs exactly as the deal does. A more realistic measure would take into account what you can do with the money you commit to the deal before you
pay it in and after you get it out. Both papers suggest that you measure the performance of a private equity investment exactly this way.

1. David A. Kaplan, The Silicon Boys and Their Valley of Dreams, 2000. Perennial. Paperback, page 204.

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